Brazilian supergroup Vale, the world's No 2 miner by value, and most indebted miner, today announced that it would be selling ten year notes, and additional 6.875% guaranteed notes due 2039. Market reports indicated that Vale would immediately seek to raise USD 1bn in the shorter end notes, and around USD 500m in notes due 2039.

Vale said that it plans to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, a euphemism for the strong need to shore up its internal cash flows. While other miners have worked fastidiously at paying down debt after heavy mineral price corrections sent panic waves through the global sector in 2008, Vale has battled to generate strong free cash flows.

Vale's capital expenditure is running pretty much at the same level as BHP Billiton, the world's biggest diversified resources stock, and generator of copious amounts of free cash flow.

As the world's biggest individual player in seaborne iron ore, Vale can pack a punch when iron ore prices are good and great; in 2008, Vale delivered USD 17.1bn in operating cash flow (compared to Rio Tinto's USD 14.9bn, and BHP Billiton's 17.8bn). The 20 or so months since 2008 have seen Vale's operating cash flows fall sharply back, but at least the trend line has been rising since early 2009.

Vale

USD m

1H10

1H09

2009

2008

2007

2006

Free cash flow







Operating cash flow

5,082

3,231

7,136

17,114

11,012

7,232

Capital expenditure

-4,053

-3,696

-8,096

-8,972

-6,651

-4,431

Free cash flow

1,029

-465

-960

8,142

4,361

2,801








Cash on hand

6,235

11,192

11,040

12,639

1,046

4,448

Debt

-23,959

-19,493

-22,880

-18,245

-19,024

-22,556

Net debt

-17,724

-8,301

-11,840

-5,606

-17,978

-18,108








Dividends

0

0

-2,724

-2,850

-1,875

-1,300



In sharp contrast to BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, Vale's balance sheet generally has been increasingly stretched in the past few years by its very heavy capital expenditure programme, plus acquistions, mainly in fertiliser, over the past year and more.

Vale remains stung by its seriously overpriced 2007 acquisition of Inco, a nickel group, for USD 18.9bn in cash. Vale raised USD 12.2bn in fresh equity during 2008, diluting shareholders. That only helped stem the slide in Vale's net debt (including cash) from USD 5.6bn at the end of 2008, to USD 17.7bn on 30 June 2010.

Questions can be raised over Vale's ability to deliver new mine builds on time and on budget. Onça Puma, a nickel mine in the Brazilian state of Pará, was announced in July 2006. Investment was put at USD 1.4bn, with start up towards the end of 2008. The latest numbers are for USD 2.7bn and start up towards the end of this year.

Vale has not yet even given the full green light for the build of Serra Sul, its proposed new giant iron ore mine in Brazil. There are equally pressing, and relatively new, demands from Simandou, in Guinea. Serra Sul was announced in 2007, with a budget of USD 10.1bn, with start up for the first half of 2012. The latest numbers are for USD 11.3bn and start up towards the end of 2013, subject to approval by the board of directors.

Going forward, Vale's premium valuation rating, relative to Rio Tinto, in particular, may be tested.

NET DEBT, selected mining names


Market






value

Value to

USD bn

End-2008

End-2009

30-Jun-10

USD bn

debt ratio

BHP Billiton

-4.2

-7.9

-3.3

179.8

1.8%

Rio Tinto

-38.6

-18.8

-12.2

124.5

9.8%

Xstrata

-16.5

-12.6

-7.9

48.2

16.3%

Anglo American

-11.2

-11.1

-10.3

50.4

20.5%

Freeport-McMoRan

-6.4

-3.7

-1.7

36.6

4.8%

Alcoa

-9.8

-8.2

-8.3

11.1

74.8%

Vale

-5.6

-11.8

-17.7

145.8

12.2%

Barrick

-3.1

-3.8

-3.2

45.1

7.1%

PotashCorp

-2.8

-3.7

-2.4

44.3

5.3%

Total/average

-98.2

-81.6

-67.0

685.6

11.9%



source

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Why are some Tier 1 gold stocks relatively underperforming their global peers in the stock price tables: These and other questions may well be pondered by specialist investors in listed gold stocks as the dollar bullion gold price flirts with making fresh all-time records.

What is clear is that the favoured Tier I gold counter, Newmont, continues to hold sway over the global gold subsector group. This is a position Newmont has held for much of this year. It is followed in the Tier I sector, in terms of stock price performance, by Newcrest (busy with a merger with fellow Australia-based global Tier I name Lihir), Barrick (the world's No 1 gold stock by value and production), and two South Africa based names, AngloGold Ashanti, and Gold Fields.

On the other hand global No.2 gold stock by value, Goldcorp, and former high flyer Agnico-Eagle along with Kinross, are still currently underperforming.

Looking at gold and gold-related stocks, the biggest, in terms of market value, stands as US-quoted SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the world's biggest gold bullion exchange traded fund. This has a current market value of USD 52.3bn, compared to Barrick's USD 45.1bn. The ETF holds physical bullion on behalf of investors, and does not operate as a mining company, thus removing the many risks that may or may not be associated with digging the stuff out of the ground. The ETF does not accrue, or pay, any form of income, unlike a gold stock, which may pay dividends and/or interest on debt instruments.

Looking at the most in-demand Tier II stocks, Red Back makes a strong appearance, under offer as it is from Tier I gold stock Kinross, which, from a pricing viewpoint, ranks as the bottom performing in its peer group, with the exception of China's Zijin.

Goldcorp this week announced a take out bid for Andean; investors may perceive, as is also the apparent case with Kinross, that the bids are overpriced. Such a notion has done but little, however, to dampen appetite for Newcrest. The three bids mentioned involve differing components of paper (fresh equity) and cash. These do not appear correlated, as such, with relative stock price performance.

The majority of Tier II gold stocks are well in demand; the only real exception is Yamana, possibly a delayed reaction to the firm's somewhat unconventional style of reporting its production and costs.

Looking at gold stocks with a market value of at least USD 20m, it is apparent that a good number of smaller names are in plentiful demand; mention can be made of Romarco, Integra Mining, Timmins Gold, Grayd Resource, Radius Gold, and Guyana Goldfields.

A good number of gold stocks active in Africa are also in strong demand, not least Great Basin, Semafo, Nevsun, Adamus Resources, Oromin, Golden Star, and Perseus Mining. No doubt a number of investors and speculators are taking bets on the "next" Red Back.

100 most-wanted gold & related equities

With a minimum market value of USD 20m


Stock

From

From

Value


price

high*

low*

USD bn

Romarco

CAD 2.32

0.0%

132.0%

1.038

Great Basin

CAD 2.51

0.0%

73.1%

0.833

Integra Mining

AUD 0.50

0.0%

132.6%

0.345

Timmins Gold

CAD 2.14

0.0%

234.4%

0.252

Grayd Resource

CAD 1.05

0.0%

218.2%

0.081

Radius Gold

CAD 0.82

0.0%

368.6%

0.057

Guyana Goldfields

CAD 10.29

-0.1%

169.4%

0.758

Semafo

CAD 9.46

-0.1%

279.9%

2.443

Allied Nevada

CAD 26.90

-0.2%

179.6%

1.469

Premier Gold

CAD 5.95

-0.3%

138.0%

0.580

Nevsun

CAD 5.43

-0.4%

179.9%

1.001

Gold Resource

USD 16.05

-0.4%

145.2%

0.793

Rainy River

CAD 8.01

-0.5%

310.8%

0.553

Lihir

AUD 4.48

-0.7%

74.3%

9.700

Xtra-Gold Resources

USD 1.45

-0.7%

126.6%

0.050

[[SPDR Gold Shares ETF]]

USD 122.70

-0.7%

26.8%

52.246

Anatolia

CAD 7.81

-0.8%

288.6%

1.033

Adamus Resources

AUD 0.65

-0.8%

86.1%

0.230

European Gold

CAD 10.51

-0.8%

191.9%

1.826

Mineros SA

COP 6,580

-0.9%

73.7%

0.953

Bear Creek Mining

CAD 5.68

-1.2%

140.7%

0.379

Bear Lake Gold

CAD 0.40

-1.2%

166.7%

0.042

St Barbara

AUD 0.39

-1.3%

85.7%

0.696

Oceanagold

AUD 3.85

-1.3%

288.9%

0.803

Oromin

CAD 1.38

-1.4%

133.9%

0.164

Intrepid Mines

AUD 1.03

-1.4%

390.5%

0.405

PanAust

AUD 0.66

-1.5%

65.0%

1.782

Alexco Resources

CAD 4.58

-1.5%

84.7%

0.232

Golden Star

USD 4.92

-1.6%

90.0%

1.210

Perseus Mining

AUD 3.02

-1.6%

184.9%

1.163

Troy Resources

AUD 2.87

-1.7%

55.1%

0.229

Atac Resources

CAD 7.22

-1.8%

1436.2%

0.623

Colossus Minerals

CAD 8.68

-1.8%

200.3%

0.694

Orvana Minerals

CAD 1.95

-2.0%

137.8%

0.216

Newmont

USD 62.07

-2.1%

49.7%

30.085

Newcrest

AUD 38.80

-2.4%

30.5%

17.148

ASA Ltd

USD 28.10

-2.4%

29.1%

0.546

Tanzanian Royalty

CAD 6.63

-2.5%

127.8%

0.577

Alamos

CAD 17.62

-2.6%

106.6%

1.944

Kingsgate

AUD 10.67

-2.8%

52.2%

0.983

Centerra

CAD 15.77

-2.8%

126.9%

3.533

Shandong Gold

CNY 45.30

-2.9%

59.5%

9.486

Sandfire Resources

AUD 5.95

-2.9%

230.6%

0.715

Reunion Gold

CAD 0.33

-2.9%

450.0%

0.033

Shield Mining

AUD 0.32

-3.0%

300.0%

0.028

Almaden Minerals

USD 2.87

-3.0%

348.4%

0.130

Centamin Egypt

CAD 2.86

-3.1%

84.5%

2.804

Buenaventura

USD 41.35

-3.1%

44.6%

11.367

Kaminak Gold

CAD 3.65

-3.2%

973.5%

0.201

Avoca Resources

AUD 3.34

-3.2%

125.7%

0.888

Midland Exploration

CAD 1.69

-3.4%

92.0%

0.039

Dragon Mining

AUD 0.14

-3.6%

101.5%

0.091

High River

CAD 1.05

-3.7%

195.8%

0.800

Zhaojin

HKD 20.85

-3.7%

63.7%

1.173

Saracen

AUD 0.52

-3.7%

96.2%

0.234

Kasbah Resources

AUD 0.13

-3.7%

170.8%

0.028

New Gold

CAD 6.72

-3.7%

99.4%

2.508

Red Back

CAD 30.72

-3.8%

180.3%

7.517

Eldorado

USD 19.29

-3.8%

94.7%

10.554

Fresnillo**

GBP 10.95

-3.9%

69.2%

12.113

JSC Polymetal**

USD 13.30

-4.0%

70.5%

5.312

Ampella Mining

AUD 2.11

-4.1%

374.2%

0.343

Detour Gold

CAD 31.39

-4.1%

207.1%

2.468

Barrick

USD 45.75

-4.7%

36.0%

45.095

Canaco Resources

CAD 2.80

-4.8%

4566.7%

0.424

Extorre Gold

CAD 5.23

-4.9%

302.3%

0.377

US Gold Corp.

USD 5.17

-5.0%

155.9%

0.602

Ramelius Resources

AUD 0.75

-5.1%

107.2%

0.200

Zhongjin

CNY 36.29

-5.1%

47.0%

7.600

B2Gold

CAD 1.87

-5.1%

175.0%

0.555

Catalpa Resources

AUD 1.86

-5.1%

58.2%

0.277

Central Gold Trust

USD 48.90

-5.2%

25.8%

0.534

Int'l Minerals

CAD 4.45

-5.3%

27.1%

0.489

Volta Resources

CAD 1.70

-5.6%

900.0%

0.214

Regis Resources

AUD 1.35

-5.6%

202.4%

0.511

Bralorne Gold

CAD 1.15

-5.7%

76.9%

0.025

Aurizon

CAD 6.99

-5.8%

83.5%

1.064

Patagonia Gold

GBP 0.20

-5.8%

68.8%

0.211

PMI Gold

CAD 0.24

-6.0%

193.8%

0.056

Silver Lake Resources

AUD 2.35

-6.4%

217.6%

0.384

AngloGold Ashanti

USD 44.39

-6.6%

30.1%

16.104

Skyline Gold

CAD 0.28

-6.7%

330.8%

0.030

Randgold Resources

USD 92.56

-7.1%

45.6%

8.409

Gryphon Minerals

AUD 1.10

-7.2%

204.2%

0.248

Richmont Mines

CAD 5.06

-7.3%

77.5%

0.149

Kryso Resources

GBP 0.16

-7.4%

152.0%

0.039

Carpathian Gold

CAD 0.44

-7.4%

83.3%

0.120

North Atlantic Resources

CAD 0.50

-7.4%

1011.1%

0.023

Metals X

AUD 0.19

-7.5%

105.6%

0.231

Orezone

CAD 0.97

-7.6%

98.0%

0.063

Fronteer

CAD 7.75

-7.8%

105.6%

0.891

Gold Fields

ZAR 107.25

-7.9%

29.1%

10.391

Auex Ventures

CAD 5.70

-8.1%

129.8%

0.213

Mungana Goldmines

AUD 0.88

-8.3%

10.0%

0.126

Franco-Nevada

CAD 31.52

-8.4%

24.2%

3.427

Iamgold

USD 19.21

-8.5%

57.6%

7.143

St Andrew Goldfields

CAD 1.25

-8.8%

220.5%

0.429

Klondex Mines

CAD 1.76

-8.8%

53.0%

0.054

Averages/total


-3.1%

124.0%

316.137

Weighted averages


-3.5%

52.8%


* 12-month ** Mainly silver





Source: market data; tables compiled by Barry Sergeant



source

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The' better-than-expected' poor employment figures of last week were generally taken as a sign that the recovery is there, but L-shaped with a slightly rising bias. The new stimuli from government will be positive and hitting where they should. Tax breaks on new equipment and infrastructural development tastes the same as digging holes and filling them in did in the 1930's. We have to wait and see if the economy will respond. We sincerely hope it will. But do investors even in the U.S. believe that a recovery will see a fall in the gold price? We think not!

THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR

We ask the question, will a recovery help the U.S. Dollar? One of the factors that U.S. investors have looked at in the past, but has broken down this year is the belief that if the Dollar falls gold will rise and vice versa. Cast your mind back to the pre-credit crunch time and what did we see?

The U.S. Trade Deficit was a regular +$60 billion a month because imports were cheaper than locally made goods and consumers bought imports. Consequently the Dollar drifted over time, lower. With U.S. consumers more thrifty than then and buying cheap imports in place of local products, we expect the same to be true in a slow recovery. In fact, the Trade deficit has already been rising faster than expected for this very reason. As Asia adds to its expertise as time goes by the quality of their goods, but not necessarily the price, will rise and claim more market share than ever before. So in even a slow recovery, expect a rising Trade deficit. This is Dollar negative.

What should be of great concern to all is the internationalization of the Yuan. Once this internationalization of the Yuan has gained traction we will see the use of the U.S. Dollar in international trade decline and fairly rapidly. The unused Dollars will have nowhere to go except home. On the world's foreign exchanges the result will be a decline in the Dollar's exchange rate. Unless there is a structural change in the import demand within the U.S., the U.S. will contribute to the Dollar's fall still. The only quick way out for the U.S. is Protectionism, which will help stop this decline. However, this will bring a far greater level of instability and uncertainty in foreign exchanges than we see now. This would be extremely gold positive.

THE POSITIVE IMPACT OF A RECOVERY ON GOLD

The overall impact of a recession or even worse, is that the quantity of money shrinks, even in the investment world. Yes, in that scene gold is sought out as a preserver of wealth, but perhaps not in as great a volume as in an uncertain, unstable, recovering economy.

The shock of the last three years on the developed world could not have been greater as the U.S. economy and its position in the global economy reached it zenith, then buckled. In the years since then there has been a considerable metamorphosis in investment thinking. The rosy future has gone. The fact that any day could bring some more bad news, more uncertainty and more instability, is firm in all of our minds. Consequently, prudence is taking as greater place as muted optimism in the investment world and investment strategies are adjusted accordingly.

As part of that new prudence gold investments have found a solid place in successful portfolios. The strategy is to act as a counter to poor performing other investments. As this attitude to gold continues to grow, more and more investment managers are getting to know the value of gold even if they don't want it in their portfolios. More and more of those managers are turning from disliking gold, to liking it. This does not necessarily mean that there is a steady drift by developed world investment managers into gold, but it does mean that each time there is another shock to the monetary system and investment world the speed and investment volumes with which investment managers turn to gold, increases. So battered are we in the last three years by bad news that we are extremely sensitized to it and react quickly.

The benefits of even a slow recovery over a recession, as far as it concerns gold, is that greater volumes of investment funds will be available for investment in gold and gold related products.

BUT A VERY SLOW RECOVERY

A rapid recovery would have fanned a positive attitude to investments and could well have deflected U.S. investment managers from investing in gold. Even as the recovery struggles to take hold, current doubts about the recovery keeps fear and uncertainty in place. The failure of the recovery to gain pace after so much has been injected into the economy so far, has fanned uncertainty and increased cautionary investing policies. It is going to take far more than simply unemployment figures that were not as bad as expected, to convince investors that a recovery has really taken hold. If the current efforts of the Obama Administration fail, it will be nigh on impossible to convince the investing public that all is well in downtown, U.S.A.

Such a mood is internationally infectious and will spread globally. Should that happen gold will accelerate its move to centre stage, in the investing world.

source

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Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto has agreed to a 13 percent cut in fourth quarter iron ore prices with Japan's Kobe Steel Ltd, probably setting a trend the industry will follow.
The deal, expected by the market, could fuel a restocking cycle if other players follow, leading to stronger prices for most of 2011, offsetting the savings of nearly $3 billion in the fourth quarter Chinese buyers might see as a result.
"We have agreed to a 13 percent cut in the price of iron ore for October-December from July-September," Gary Tsuchida, spokesman for Japan's fourth-largest steelmaker, said on Wednesday, although he would not comment on the actual price.
However, a spokesman from another Japanese steelmaker, Sumitomo Metal Industries, said the company had agreed with Rio Tinto on a price of around $127 a tonne, down 16 percent from around $147.00 a tonne paid for the third quarter.
Larger firms Nippon Steel and JFE Steel both declined to comment.
"The deal looks like an average of the June, July and August spot price, and in line with expectations," said Ben Westmore, economist at National Australia Bank.
"On the demand side there it looks like they have steadied. There have been persistent stories about destocking by Chinese mills, part of the broad cycle and nothing to be panicked about."
The destocking cycle would turn around in the fourth quarter, resulting in rising prices in the first nine months of next year and a net rise for 2010 of the order of 7 percent, he added.
Chinese steel production remained brisk in August, but could slow in September after several provinces ordered mills to limit production.
China produced 1.7 million tonnes of crude steel per day in August, data from the China Iron & Steel Association showed, higher than July's daily average of 1.66 million tonnes as a 15 percent rally in prices of products like rebar encouraged output.
CISA data also suggested crude steel production slowed in the last 11 days of August after output in several provinces was affected by reduced electricity supply. But few in the market expect those cutbacks to endure.
CISA fought a bitter rearguard action against the launch of of a more flexible pricing system, instead preferring annual prices, which critics described as a "free put" option for Chinese buyers.
At the height of the economic crisis, spot prices plunged below the annual contract and Chinese mills were quick to defer or default on those higher priced annual tonnages to buy cut price spot material -- a move that dealt a finishing blow to the decades-old system.
Shan Shanghua, the secretary general of CISA, was not available while another senior official, the deputy head, declined to comment on the Rio Tinto price news.
If other miners agree to the same price as Rio and Chinese imports continue at the pace seen in the year so far, China will see its iron ore bill cut by $2.9 billion for the last three months of the year against the third quarter.
Based on Japan's imports of 77.9 million tonnes of iron ore between January and July, the nation's mills could save $626 million in the final three months of the year.
Glyn Lawcock, head of Australian Resources, UBS Securities Australia told Reuters the industry's move to quarterly pricing appeared to be working well, with customers sticking to agreed prices.
Prices would have to fall considerably further to result in output cuts by miners, he added.
"When (iron ore) get down to around $110 a tonne -- if it falls that far -- that provides a bit of a floor because the domestic guys (in China) are starting to get close to a break-even cost position."
"But while we stay above $100 a tonne -- most people in the market use basis $60 a tonne long term -- so, above $100 they are still making a lot of cash."

source

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Iron ore prices are poised to decline further this year following a 14% drop so far in the third quarter from the second quarter.

Prices are averaging $143 a tonne for the third quarter, vs. $167 a tonne in the second quarter, according to Metal Bulletin prices.

Last week, global mining giant Rio Tinto(RTP) told Australia Associated Press that iron ore prices are set to decline 13.3% during the fourth quarter. The company's iron ore division chief executive Sam Walsh foresees prices dipping to $127 a tonne, based on the average index price during the previous quarter.

The Steel Index, which tracks 62%-grade iron ore arriving at China's Tianjin port, expects prices to plunge by around 12% during the fourth quarter. Assuming the current average of $143, the prices could hover around the $125-a-tonne mark.

In a recent development, China Minmetals Corp. told Bloomberg that the China Iron & Steel Association is negotiating with iron ore producers to fix a monthly price for the raw material. However, the move from quarterly pricing to monthly pricing increases the prospect of Chinese steelmakers defaulting on contracts, Minmetals' Vice President Feng Guiquan was reported saying.

This year, Rio, BHP Billiton(BHP), and Vale SA(VALE), which together account for about 70% of global iron ore production, fixed iron ore prices on a quarterly basis instead of the annual pricing mechanism followed earlier.

The steel industry will benefit from lower iron ore prices as it reduces the cost of production. China's steel manufacturers stand to gain from the drop, as the country is the largest steelmaker and top consumer.

Sluggish demand forced nearly 40% of Chinese steelmakers to suspend production due to a 17% drop in steel prices and as the government attempted to cool the overheated property market. Looking forward to 2010, MEPS, an independent supplier of steel market information, forecasts China's steel production to grow 10% year over year to 627 million tonnes from 567.8 million tonnes.

China's iron ore imports for the first seven months ending July 2010 stood at 360 million tonnes, up 1.5% year over year. The country's iron ore imports could reach 650 million tonnes during 2010, according to Wu Wenzhang, an analyst from steelhome.cn.

The likely surge in iron ore imports is attributed to lower prices and reduced stockpiles. However, China's steel production has declined 8% from May to July this year. Production fell to a five-month low of 51.7 million tonnes in July, down 3.9% month on month but up 2.2% year over year.

source

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